The story behind negative returns: why fixed interest investments can fall in value when interest rates rise?
It may seem odd that rising interest rates would cause negative returns for fixed interest investments such as bonds. We explain why these types of investments can fall in value and what other options are available for you.
Before we get into why a fund’s return might be negative, here’s some background about fixed interest investments.
Superannuation and investment funds can include an allocation to fixed interest investments in their investment strategy.
This is commonly part of the 'defensive' component of the portfolio, which is generally lower in risk and less volatile than 'growth' investments, such as shares and property that is listed on the stock exchange.
This ultimately helps to diversify the overall risk and returns in a portfolio.
Fixed interest investments are issued by governments, banks and companies. A borrower, like the Australian Government, can borrow money in different ways, including fixed interest investments called bonds. Bonds pay investors regular interest at a fixed rate – called 'coupon payments'. The borrower promises to pay back the original amount borrowed to the investor at the end of the agreed period (such as 5, 10 or 15 years). Many bonds are listed on a financial exchange (such as the ASX) which means they can be traded (i.e. bought and sold).
For investors, bonds offer the ability to lock in a better rate than 'at call' cash invested in a bank account or money market investments. The better rate that can be achieved than at call cash is because a bond is a riskier investment than cash.
It’s important to distinguish between a bond’s periodic interest payment (its coupon) and its value(the amount the market will pay for the bond).
While the interest paid on a bond is set, the bond’s value –rises and falls over time. Essentially,the price of a bond goes up and down depending on the level of market interest rates.
When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. That’s because investors can now get a better interest rate on other investments, which reduces demand for the bond and forces its price down.
On the other hand, if interest rates fall then the price of the bond goes up. That’s because the bond now offers a better interest rate relative to other investments, which increases demand and pushes the price up.
Mary wants to sell a of $100 bond with a fixed interest payment of 2% pa. The bond has a 5 year term and it’s been 3 years since the bond was issued, so there are 2 years left to go.
Scott is looking to buy bonds. If interest rates are rising, Scott might only be willing to buy Mary’s bond for $98, even though Mary paid $100.Scott knows the interest that he’ll earn on Mary’s bond (2% pa) is now less than the interest he could earn if he invested his money elsewhere, given the interest rate rise.
Therefore, when she sells her bond, the value of Mary’s original investment has fallen from $100 to$98. This fall in value would be show as a negative return on her original investment.
Because the original investment falls in value, fixed interest funds can have a negative return fora period. Importantly, rising interest rates don't change the quality of the bonds in your portfolio. The issuer of the bond is still expected to keep paying the fixed rate of interest.
It’s a normal part of the interest rate cycle for the value of fixed interest investments to rise and fall over time. However, when the bond reaches the end of the 5 year term, Scott will receive the $100.
And taking a big picture view, when interest rates rise, it’s ultimately good news for investors in fixed interest investments. Higher rates of interest will be reflected in the return on both bonds and cash over time.
That’s why investors are given a recommended investment time frame of 3 or more years when they invest in funds that contain fixed interest investments. Over shorter time frames,market-linked investments move up and down in response to market forces such as rising and falling interest rates. But over the longer term, as you can see from the table below, both Australian and International fixed interest perform well.
Australian shares
3.36%
9.65%
8.98%
9.87%
8.56%
Global shares
-6.25%
4.87%
10.06%
11.30%
14.33%
5.98%
Australian property securities
2.42%
15.06%
6.27%
7.37%
11.71%
6.66%
Australian fixed interest
-5.27%
-7.47%
-0.91%
1.40%
3.12%
4.84%
International fixed interest
-7.29%
-6.82%
-0.12%
1.23%
3.48%
5.75%
Cash
0.01%
0.02%
0.40%
0.99%
1.79%
3.61%
Global property
-5.26%
2.45%
4.88%
6.06%
6.98%
8.62%
It is important to consider that a change in investment option can mean that you lock in the fall in value of the investment. If you are still uncomfortable with the risk, CFS offers a broad range of range of investment options that may be suitable for you.
For instance, depending on your personal circumstances, a cash option or a term deposit may be suitable for investing in the short to medium term as the returns should be more certain. And important to remember your superannuation money can be invested in a cash option or term deposit – super is not only for investing in the share market.
If you’re at pension stage, another option is a lifetime annuity or fixed term annuity, where the amount you will receive will be known in advance. Annuities can be for fixed terms or, alternatively, your lifetime.
Past performance is no indication of future performance.
It is important to consider that a change in investment option can mean that you lock in the fall in value of the investment. If you are still uncomfortable with the risk, CFS offers a broad range of range of investment options that may be suitable for you.
For instance, depending on your personal circumstances, a cash option or a term deposit may be suitable for investing in the short to medium term as the returns should be more certain. And important to remember your superannuation money can be invested in a cash option or term deposit – super is not only for investing in the share market.
If you’re at pension stage, another option is a lifetime annuity or fixed term annuity, where the amount you will receive will be known in advance. Annuities can be for fixed terms or, alternatively, your lifetime.
We closely monitor markets and share regular market updates to make sure you have the support you need. You can stay up-to-date on the latest developments with market updates, news and insights.
If you’re concerned about whether you should make changes to your investments, we recommend connecting with your financial adviser to review your investment goals, identify any potential opportunities, and make changes if necessary.
If you don't have an adviser, you can find an adviser here or call us with any general queries on 13 13 36, Monday to Friday, 8:30am to 6pm Sydney time (+612 8397 1100 from outside of Australia).
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Avanteos Investments Limited ABN 20 096 259 979, AFSL 245531(AIL) is the trustee of the Colonial First State FirstChoice SuperannuationTrust ABN 26 458 298 557 and issuer of FirstChoice range of super and pension products. Colonial First State Investments Limited ABN 98 002 348 352, AFSL232468 (CFSIL) is the responsible entity and issuer of products made available under FirstChoice Investments and FirstChoice Wholesale Investments.
This document may include general advice but does not take into account your individual objectives, financial situation, needs or tax circumstances. The Target Market Determinations (TMD) for our financial products can be found at www.cfs.com.au/tmd, which include a description of whoa financial product might suit. You should read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and Financial Services Guide (FSG) carefully, assess whether the information is appropriate for you, and consider talking to a financial adviser before making an investment decision. You can get the PDS and FSG at www.cfs.com.au or by calling us on 13 13 36. Past performance is no indication of future performance.